How to build accurate City Block Real Estate Forecasts Models. Step One is listed with Eddie Godshalk’s Growth Maps blog, that is chock-full of good advice. He gives people a powerful and unique, proven, avenue of data information and knowledge that is easy to understand and maneuver on how to build your own real estate forecasts for Block Groups.
STEP 1: The first step in building an accurate Block Group Forecasting System is to determine the type of predictive model you want developed. There are many things you need to consider when building a predictive model, and these include:
What outputs do you want?
For example, do you want to predict the future price changes (forecast) or future growth, or some other output? In our system, we focus on forecasts at the Block level, with statistical confidence numbers for each forecast. If you are looking for a different output, you will need to adjust your system. At what level do you want your outputs? Do you want to build a predictive model for a Macro Market?
A Macro Markets predictive model for: a Country (national level), a MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), a CBSA (Core Based Statistical Areas), or County? Or for Micro Markets like: Census Tracts, Zip Codes, or Block Groups?
And the more local the predictive model, the more expensive is the raw data, and the more time consuming is the development of building the model. So determining the output is important. What time line?
Do you want to build a real estate forecasts model for 24-days or 24-months?
This question is important, since typically it takes twice as much raw data for a predictive model. That is, if you want to build a predictive model for 24-months, your development team will need 48-months of raw data of historic monthly and/or quarterly data.
Do you want statistical confidence numbers for your real estate forecasts? Statistical confidence numbers are determined by back-testing, and statistical confidence numbers are important to some businesses, since forecasts are part of the decision making process. Statistical confidence numbers are measures of trust.
Once you have determined the type of real estate forecasts model you want to develop, you can go to the Step 2. The next steps, we will discuss for those who choose to opt-in.
For more information, watch our free demo video on our homepage, and download your FREE eBook titled: “What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate Technology: Leveraging Technology and Local Analytics to Grow Your Commercial Real Estate Business” at http://growth-maps.com/free-ebook/
I need your feedback to build the optimal real estate forecasts and software.
Your comments are most welcome, and I appreciate your feedback.
Eddie Godshalk, founder of Growth Maps LLC www.Growth-Maps.com